Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
