Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
